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Energy Sector Analysis and Modeling – From Primary to Final Energy

Climate change and energy supply limitation are growing concerns. Solving them requires strong implication from our societies and more and more stakeholders and scientists are therefore interested in energy scenarios publication. They indeed provide options to be investigated in order to set the future strategies to tackle these issues.

It is within this context that The Shift Project has launched the Scenario project which main purposes are to clarify this specific prospective field and develop a pedagogical energy scenario modeling tool.

The Master Thesis work presented in this report is the result of a six months internship in the company within the Scenario project team, and more particularly within the energy scenario modeling tool development team. Beside the energy demand and supply side of a scenario design stands the energy sector.

The work focused on this aspect, which corresponds to all the industry and the energy flows standing in between primary energy resources and our final energy consumption. It can therefore be considered as the global conversion process of the energy, which encompasses conversion efficiencies, energy allocation and the different losses.

This energy sector is of main concern when one is dealing with energy scenarios since it can contain many possibilities to be investigated in order to set up different variants. Getting a strong knowledge about the energy sector is then crucial. Nevertheless, the global conversion process between primary and final energy still remains a big black box for many of us and therefore prevents us to realize its role and the means that can be applied to explore even further the possible energy scenarios possibilities.

To counteract this observation, this thesis work was dedicated to analyze the energy sector at world scale by revealing its components and the main levers that could be used to shape the future energy system. This analysis was conducted via the system approach and lead to the development of a methodology to model the energy sector and develop a module in which cursors enable an end-user to generate a wide range of scenarios and explore different resources allocation options etc. This module is part of TSP’s energy scenario modeling tool together with a demand and a supply side modules.

This work is intended to provide a clear vision of the energy sector and the key parameters that might be of main importance to initiate variants study for energy scenarios prospects, such as power efficiencies, energy mix or distribution losses.
Source: KTH
Author: Praz, Bastien

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